Multiple Factors Coupling Probability Calculation Model of Transmission Line Ice-Shedding

Hao Pan, Fangrong Zhou, Yi Ma, Yutang Ma, Ping Qiu and Jun Guo ()
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Hao Pan: Joint Laboratory of Power Remote Sensing Technology, Electric Power Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Company Ltd., Kunming 650217, China
Fangrong Zhou: Joint Laboratory of Power Remote Sensing Technology, Electric Power Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Company Ltd., Kunming 650217, China
Yi Ma: Joint Laboratory of Power Remote Sensing Technology, Electric Power Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Company Ltd., Kunming 650217, China
Yutang Ma: Joint Laboratory of Power Remote Sensing Technology, Electric Power Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Company Ltd., Kunming 650217, China
Ping Qiu: Zhaotong Power Supply Bureau of Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd., Zhaotong 657000, China
Jun Guo: School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 5, 1-24

Abstract: After a transmission line is covered by ice in winter, ice-shedding and vibration occurs under special meteorological and external dynamic conditions, which leads to intense transmission line shaking. Transmission line ice-shedding and vibration often cause line flashover trips and outages. In January 2018, three 500 kV transmission lines, namely, the 500 kV Guanli line, the 500 kV Dushan line, and the 500 kV Guanqiao line, tripped and cut off due to ice-shedding and vibration in Anhui province, seriously threatening the safe operation of a large power grid. Current studies mainly focus on analyzing the influence factors and characteristics of line ice-shedding and investigating suppression measures, but they only analyze the correlation between each influencing factor and icing or shedding, and do not consider the coupling effects between multiple factors. In this paper, the key influencing factors and the probability distribution of transmission line ice-shedding were analyzed, and a multiple-factor coupling fault probability calculation model of line ice-shedding based on Copula function was proposed. The fault probability was calculated directly by considering multiple influence factors at the same time, which effectively overcame the error caused by multi-factor transformation in fuzzy membership degree and other methods. It provided an important decision-making basis for preventing and controlling transmission line ice-shedding faults.

Keywords: transmission line; ice-shedding; Copula function; multiple-factor coupling; failure probability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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