Forecasting Energy Poverty in European Countries: The Effect of Increasing Energy Commodities Prices

Alfonso Carfora and Giuseppe Scandurra ()
Additional contact information
Alfonso Carfora: Department of Economics and Law, University of Macerata, 62100 Macerata, Italy
Giuseppe Scandurra: Department of Management Studies and Quantitative Methods, University of Naples Parthenope, 80133 Naples, Italy

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 5, 1-14

Abstract: The impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating in many countries, increasing household energy poverty. Lockdown measures have brought the EU economies into recession phases and forced people to stay confined to their homes, aggravating these issues. From the second half of 2021, when the worst seemed behind us, a new threat has appeared threatening economic recovery: the inflationary process in energy prices. This paper aims to verify the effects on energy poverty in European countries following the economic crisis generated by COVID-19 and the current inflationary scenario due to the increase in energy commodity prices through dynamic factor models, estimating the time it will take for energy poverty to return to levels before the shocks that occurred over the past two years. The outcomes show that the overall rise in energy prices (in particular gas) that unexpectedly affected European countries modifies the forecast scenarios, delaying, at best, the first improvements, initially expected as early as 2021, until after 2022.

Keywords: energy poverty; COVID-19 pandemic; EU energy prices; dynamic factors analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/5/1224/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/5/1224/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:5:p:1224-:d:1350879

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().