A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Framework for Zero Emission Vehicle Fleet Renewal Considering Lifecycle and Scenario Uncertainty

Giuseppe Aiello (), Salvatore Quaranta, Rosalinda Inguanta, Antonella Certa and Mario Venticinque
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Giuseppe Aiello: Department of Engineering, University of Palermo, 90128 Palermo, Italy
Salvatore Quaranta: Department of Engineering, University of Palermo, 90128 Palermo, Italy
Rosalinda Inguanta: Department of Engineering, University of Palermo, 90128 Palermo, Italy
Antonella Certa: Department of Engineering, University of Palermo, 90128 Palermo, Italy
Mario Venticinque: CNR-ISAFoM Istituto per i Sistemi Agricoli e Forestali del Mediterraneo, 87036 Rende, Italy

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 6, 1-19

Abstract: In the last decade, with the increased concerns about the global environment, attempts have been made to promote the replacement of fossil fuels with sustainable sources. For transport, which accounts for around a quarter of total greenhouse gas emissions, meeting climate neutrality goals will require replacing existing fleets with electric or hydrogen-propelled vehicles. However, the lack of adequate decision support approach makes the introduction of new propulsion technologies in the transportation sector a complex strategic decision problem where distorted non-optimal decisions may easily result in long-term negative effects on the performance of logistic operators. This research addresses the problem of transport fleet renewal by proposing a multi-criteria decision-making approach and takes into account the multiple propulsion technologies currently available and the objectives of the EU Green Deal, as well as the inherent scenario uncertainty. The proposed approach, based on the TOPSIS model, involves a novel decision framework referred to as a generalized life cycle evaluation of the environmental and cost objectives, which is necessary when comparing green and traditional propulsion systems in a long-term perspective to avoid distorted decisions. Since the objective of the study is to provide a practical methodology to support strategic decisions, the framework proposed has been validated against a practical case referred to the strategic fleet renewal decision process. The results obtained demonstrate how the decision maker’s perception of the technological evolution of the propulsion technologies influences the decision process, thus leading to different optimal choices.

Keywords: logistics; hydrogen; total cost of ownership; well to wheel; Topsis; decarbonization; green mobility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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