Analysis of the Impact of Clean Coal Technologies on the Share of Coal in Poland’s Energy Mix

Aurelia Rybak (), Aleksandra Rybak, Jarosław Joostberens, Joachim Pielot and Piotr Toś
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Aurelia Rybak: Faculty of Mining, Safety Engineering and Industrial Automation, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
Aleksandra Rybak: Department of Physical Chemistry and Technology of Polymers, Faculty of Chemistry, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
Jarosław Joostberens: Faculty of Mining, Safety Engineering and Industrial Automation, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
Joachim Pielot: Faculty of Mining, Safety Engineering and Industrial Automation, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
Piotr Toś: JSW IT Systems, 44-330 Jastrzębie-Zdrój, Poland

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 6, 1-17

Abstract: This article presents research results on the share of coal in the energy mix and the impact of clean coal technologies on Poland’s energy mix. Two mathematical models were utilised: the Boltzmann sigmoidal curve and a supervised machine learning model that employs multiple regressions. Eight explanatory variables were incorporated into the model, the influence of which on the explained variable was confirmed by Student’s t -test. The constructed models were verified using ex post errors and the Durbin–Watson and Shapiro–Wilk statistical tests. It was observed that the share of coal in the mix decreased more dynamically after 2015 compared to previous years. Furthermore, a simulation was conducted using the machine learning model, which confirmed the hypothesis on the influence of clean coal technologies on the level of coal share in the Poland energy production structure. As shown by the analysis and simulation, coal could be maintained in the energy mixes of EU countries, and even if the negative aspects of using this fuel were limited—primarily the emission of harmful substances—its share could even increase. It was noted that this share could be higher by 22% assuming a return to the interest in CCT levels from before 2015 and the reduction in CO 2 emissions using membrane techniques proposed by the authors. Clean coal technologies would enable diversification of the energy mix, which is an important aspect of energy security. They would also enable the gradual introduction of renewable energy sources or other energy sources, which would facilitate the transition stage on the way to a sustainable energy mix.

Keywords: coal demand; clean coal technologies; machine learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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