Global Residual Demand Analysis in a Deep Variable Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario for Replacing Coal: A Study of 42 Countries

Jai-Oan Cho, Jeong Ik Lee () and Staffan Qvist
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Jai-Oan Cho: Department of Nuclear & Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST), 291, Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
Jeong Ik Lee: Department of Nuclear & Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST), 291, Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
Staffan Qvist: Qvist Consulting Limited, London UB1 3EP, UK

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 6, 1-15

Abstract: This study analyzes the residual demand curves of 42 countries under five scenarios with varying variable renewable energy (VRE) levels to observe how replacing coal with VRE can alter the demand curve. Using 2018 demand data, the residual demand was calculated and analyzed by subtracting the VRE supply curve from the demand curve. The operational requirements for low-carbon load-following sources amid high VRE penetration are examined. Key findings indicate that substantial peak residual demand persists even with 70% energy from VREs, emphasizing the need for significant load-following resources. Transitioning to a 70% VRE scenario could reduce CO 2 emissions by approximately 16.799 billion tons, advancing towards carbon neutrality. However, this benefit depends on maintaining grid stability, highlighting the importance of adequate load-following plants to manage VRE intermittency. Countries like Malaysia, South Korea, Tunisia, the UK, Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Libya face higher load-following demands due to specific renewable energy contexts. This study reveals varying renewable energy environments across countries, suggesting that a universal strategy for carbon neutrality and replacing coal may not be feasible. Each nation must develop its own approach to emission reduction, considering its unique conditions. This research emphasizes the urgent need for developing cost-effective, flexible, low-carbon load-following sources to enhance decarbonization potential globally.

Keywords: residual demand; coal replacement; deep VRE penetration; load-following; ramp rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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