Outlook for Offshore Wind Energy Development in Mexico from WRF Simulations and CMIP6 Projections

Jaime Meza-Carreto, Rosario Romero-Centeno (), Bernardo Figueroa-Espinoza, Efraín Moreles and Carlos López-Villalobos
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Jaime Meza-Carreto: Programa de Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico City 04510, Mexico
Rosario Romero-Centeno: Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico City 04510, Mexico
Bernardo Figueroa-Espinoza: Laboratorio de Ingeniería y Procesos Costeros, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Puerto de Abrigo s/n, Sisal 97355, Mexico
Efraín Moreles: Unidad Académica Procesos Oceánicos y Costeros, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico City 04510, Mexico
Carlos López-Villalobos: Instituto de Energías Renovables, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Xochicalco s/n, Temixco 62580, Mexico

Energies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 8, 1-30

Abstract: This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the offshore wind energy potential in Mexico across 40 years (1979–2018) of numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The WRF identifies three regions with moderate to good wind potential: off the north coast of Tamaulipas (Zone I), the northwest coast of Yucatan (Zone II), and the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Zone III). The analysis involves comparing 47 CMIP6 climate models with the WRF results and selecting the best performing models to obtain future projections for the short term (2040–2069) and the long term (2070–2099). Two ensemble-based strategies were implemented. The first one, which uses an intersection approach from which four CMIP6 models were considered, reveals positive percentage differences in Zone II for both future projections, especially for the long-term one. In Zones I and III, positive values are also observed near the coast, mainly for the long-term projection, but they are considerably lower compared to those in Zone II. The second ensemble strategy uses weight assignment through the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, so that a greater weight is given to the model that performed better in each particular zone, potentially providing more accurate results. The findings suggest the likelihood of increased offshore wind energy in these three zones of Mexico, for both short- and long-term future projections, with positive percentage differences of up to 10% in certain areas.

Keywords: offshore wind energy in Mexico; wind power future projections; climate change; numerical modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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