Wind–Photovoltaic–Hydropower Joint Output Model Study Based on Probability Distribution and Correlation Analysis

Ligui Wu, Benhong Wang, Peng Zhang, Yiming Ke, Fangqing Zhang () and Jiang Guo ()
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Ligui Wu: China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd., Yichang 443000, China
Benhong Wang: China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd., Yichang 443000, China
Peng Zhang: China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd., Yichang 443000, China
Yiming Ke: School of Power and Mechanical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Fangqing Zhang: School of Power and Mechanical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Jiang Guo: School of Power and Mechanical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 10, 1-12

Abstract: To maximize the consumption of renewable energy and improve the reliability of power systems, the development of wind–photovoltaic–hydropower complementary power systems is promising, utilizing the dynamic regulation characteristics of hydropower. Firstly, the complementarity of wind–photovoltaic–hydropower is analyzed, where output characteristics of wind, photovoltaics, and hydropower are introduced, and output models related to wind speed, light intensity, and water level are established. Furthermore, the probability distribution of wind and photovoltaic output is calculated with the maximum likelihood method, and a correlation analysis between wind and photovoltaic output is conducted, where a wind–photovoltaic joint output model is established. Lastly, the k-means clustering algorithm is adopted to process typical scenarios of wind–photovoltaic joint output, and a case study is conducted to validate the wind–photovoltaic–hydropower joint output model. In configuring wind and photovoltaic output reasonably, the amount of abandoned wind and abandoned light is decreased significantly, while the reliability of the power system is improved.

Keywords: renewable energy; complementary power system; probability distribution; correlation analysis; k-means clustering algorithm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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