Research on Different Energy Transition Pathway Analysis and Low-Carbon Electricity Development: A Case Study of an Energy System in Inner Mongolia

Boyi Li (), Richao Cong, Toru Matsumoto and Yajuan Li
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Boyi Li: Graduate School of Environmental Engineering, The University of Kitakyushu, Fukuoka 808-0135, Japan
Richao Cong: Graduate School of Cultural Policy and Management, Shizuoka University of Art and Culture, Shizuoka 430-8533, Japan
Toru Matsumoto: Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, The University of Kitakyushu, Fukuoka 808-0135, Japan
Yajuan Li: Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, The University of Kitakyushu, Fukuoka 808-0135, Japan

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 12, 1-25

Abstract: To achieve carbon neutrality targets in the power sector, regions with rich coal and renewable energy resources are facing unprecedented pressure. This paper explores the decarbonization pathway in the power sector in Inner Mongolia, China, under different energy transition scenarios based on the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. This includes renewable energy expansion, carbon capture and storage (CCS) applications, demand response, and economic regulation scenarios. Subsequently, a combination of the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and Slack-Based Measure Data Envelopment Analysis (SBM-DEA) model was developed to investigate the influencing factors and power generation efficiency in low-carbon electricity. The results revealed that this region emphasizes first developing renewable energy and improving the carbon and green electricity market and then accelerating CCS technology. Its carbon emissions are among the lowest, at about 77.29 million tons, but the cost could reach CNY 229.8 billion in 2060. We also found that the influencing factors of carbon productivity, low-carbon electricity structures, and carbon emissions significantly affected low-carbon electricity generation; their cumulative contribution rate is 367–588%, 155–399%, and −189–−737%, respectively. Regarding low-carbon electricity efficiency, the demand response scenario is the lowest at about 0.71; other scenarios show similar efficiency values. This value could be improved by optimizing the energy consumption structure and the installed capacity configuration.

Keywords: energy transition; carbon reduction; low-carbon electricity; scenarios analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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