Assessing the Resilience of Malawi’s Power Grid to the 2022 Tropical Cyclone Ana Using a Combination of the AFLEPT Metric Framework and Resilience Capacities

Joyce Nyuma Chivunga, Fransisco Gonzalez-Longatt, Zhengyu Lin and Richard Blanchard ()
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Joyce Nyuma Chivunga: Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology, Loughborough University, Epinal Way, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK
Fransisco Gonzalez-Longatt: Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology, Loughborough University, Epinal Way, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK
Zhengyu Lin: Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology, Loughborough University, Epinal Way, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK
Richard Blanchard: Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology, Loughborough University, Epinal Way, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 12, 1-41

Abstract: While power system resilience studies continue to grow due to the criticality of electrical infrastructures, the challenge of inconsistencies in evaluation frameworks remains. Furthermore, the desire for researchers to contribute towards the development of practical assessment frameworks continues to grow. In addition, the locality of resilience issues has challenged researchers to find context-based resilience solutions. This paper addresses these by proposing an assessment framework, which evaluates the five phases of the resilience trapezoid: preventive, absorptive, adaptive, restorative, and transformative. This framework presents metrics for measuring preventive indicators for the a nticipating system status, f requency of functionality degradation, how l ow functionality drops, e xtension in a degraded state, the p romptness of recovery, and system t ransformation—the AFLEPT model. The AFLEPT framework is applied, with its resilience indicators and capacities, to evaluate the resilience of Malawi’s transmission network to the 2022 Tropical Cyclone Ana (TCA). DigSILENT PowerFactory 2023 SP5 was utilised to support this research. The results indicate significant resilience challenges, manifested by an inadequate generation reserve, significant decline in grid functionality, extended total grid outage hours, longer restoration times, and a lack of transformation. Eight percent of key transmission lines and eighteen percent of power generation infrastructure were completely damaged by the TCA, which lasted up to 25 days and 16 months to, respectively, before restoration. Thus, the analysis reveals gaps in preventive, absorptive, adaptive, restorative, and transformative resilience capacities. The results underscore the need for context-based infrastructural and operational resilience enhancement measures, which have been discussed in this paper. Directions for further research have been proposed, which include exploring multiple grid improvement measures and an economic modelling of these measures.

Keywords: AFLEPT metric; resilience; Malawi; tropical cyclone; resilience capacity; power system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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