Estimation of Remaining Insulation Lifetime of Aged XLPE Cables with Step-Stress Method Based on Physical-Driven Model

Yingqiang Shang, Jingjiang Qu, Jingshuang Wang, Jiren Chen (), Jingyue Ma, Jun Xiong, Yue Li and Zepeng Lv ()
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Yingqiang Shang: State Grid Beijing Electric Power Co., Ltd., Beijing 100015, China
Jingjiang Qu: State Grid Beijing Electric Power Co., Ltd., Beijing 100015, China
Jingshuang Wang: State Grid Beijing Electric Power Co., Ltd., Beijing 100015, China
Jiren Chen: School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Jingyue Ma: School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Jun Xiong: State Grid Beijing Electric Power Co., Ltd., Beijing 100015, China
Yue Li: School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Zepeng Lv: School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 12, 1-16

Abstract: The remaining lifetime of the cable insulation is an important but hard topic for the industry and research groups as there are more and more cables nearing their designed life in China. However, it is hard to accurately and efficiently obtain the ageing characteristic parameters of cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cable insulation. This study systematically analyzes the evolution of the remaining insulation lifetime of XLPE cables under different ageing states using the step-stress method combined with the inverse power model (IPM) and a physical-driven model (Crine model). By comparing un-aged and accelerated-aged specimens, the step-stress breakdown tests were conducted to obtain the Weibull distribution characteristics of breakdown voltage and breakdown time. Experimental results demonstrate that the characteristic breakdown field strength and remaining lifetime of the specimens decrease significantly with prolonged ageing. The ageing parameter of the IPM was calculated. It is found that the ageing parameter of IPM increases with the ageing time. However, it can hardly link to the other properties or physic parameters of the material. The activation energy and electron acceleration distance of the Crine model were also calculated. It is found that ageing activation energy stays almost the same in samples with different ageing time, showing that it is a material intrinsic parameter that will not change with the ageing; the electron acceleration distance increases with the ageing time, it makes sense that the ageing process may break the molecule chain of XLPE and increase the size of the free volume. It shows that the Crine model can better fit the physic process of ageing in theory and mathematic, and the acceleration distance of the Crine model is a physical driven parameter that can greatly reflect the ageing degree of the cable insulation and be used as an indicator of the ageing states.

Keywords: ageing model; Crine model; cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE); remaining lifetime; step-stress method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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