Sustainable Mobility and Emissions: The Role of the Sale Structure in the Automotive Energy Transition

Olga Orynycz (), Ondrej Stopka, Anna Borucka (), Ewa Kulesza, Jerzy Merkisz and Petr Kolařík
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Olga Orynycz: Department of Production Management, Faculty of Engineering Management, Bialystok University of Technology, Wiejska Street 45A, 15-351 Bialystok, Poland
Ondrej Stopka: Department of Transport and Logistics, Faculty of Technology, Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, Okružní 517/10, 370 01 České Budějovice, Czech Republic
Anna Borucka: Faculty of Security, Logistics and Management, Military University of Technology, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland
Ewa Kulesza: Department of Mechanics and Applied Computer Science, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Bialystok University of Technology, Wiejska Street 45A, 15-351 Bialystok, Poland
Jerzy Merkisz: Faculty of Civil Engineering and Transport, Poznań University of Technology, 60-965 Poznań, Poland
Petr Kolařík: Department of Transport and Logistics, Faculty of Technology, Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, Okružní 517/10, 370 01 České Budějovice, Czech Republic

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 13, 1-19

Abstract: The aim of this article is to assess the sale structure impact of selected, popular brands of passenger vehicles on total CO 2 emissions in the context of the energy transition in the transport sector. A detailed analysis was conducted of the projected sales of gasoline-, diesel-, hybrid-, as well as electric-powered vehicles over the years 2021–2028. Based on the available empirical data, a mathematical model was developed to estimate emissions over the entire life cycle of vehicles, taking into account the unit carbon footprint of each type of drivetrain and the expected number of vehicles sold. The results indicate a gradual decline in total CO 2 emissions during the analyzed period, mainly due to the increasing share of alternative drivetrains. Despite the growth in electric vehicle sales, their impact on emission reductions remains limited due to the long lifespan of conventional vehicle fleets. The article concludes with a proposal to expand the LCA model to include regional, energy, and recycling components, which could help in formulating more effective climate policies.

Keywords: CO 2 emissions; sale forecast; life cycle analysis (LCA); energy transition; electric drivetrain; hybrid vehicle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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