Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

Hsiang-He Lee (), Robert S. Arthur, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Thomas A. Edmunds, Jessica L. Wert, Matthew V. Signorotti and Jean-Paul Watson
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Hsiang-He Lee: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USA
Robert S. Arthur: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USA
Jean-Christophe Golaz: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USA
Thomas A. Edmunds: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USA
Jessica L. Wert: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USA
Matthew V. Signorotti: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USA
Jean-Paul Watson: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, USA

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 13, 1-27

Abstract: We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

Keywords: climate change; energy resource drought; solar energy; wind energy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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