Quantum-Enhanced Predictive Degradation Pathway Optimization for PV Storage Systems: A Hybrid Quantum–Classical Approach for Maximizing Longevity and Efficiency

Dawei Wang, Shuang Zeng, Liyong Wang, Baoqun Zhang, Cheng Gong, Zhengguo Piao () and Fuming Zheng
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Dawei Wang: State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company, Beijing 100031, China
Shuang Zeng: State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company, Beijing 100031, China
Liyong Wang: State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company, Beijing 100031, China
Baoqun Zhang: State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company, Beijing 100031, China
Cheng Gong: State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company, Beijing 100031, China
Zhengguo Piao: School of Electrical and Control Engineering, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China
Fuming Zheng: School of Electrical and Control Engineering, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 14, 1-27

Abstract: The increasing deployment of photovoltaic and energy storage systems (ESSs) in modern power grids has highlighted the critical challenge of component degradation, which significantly impacts system efficiency, operational costs, and long-term reliability. Conventional energy dispatch and optimization approaches fail to adequately mitigate the progressive efficiency loss in PV modules and battery storage, leading to suboptimal performance and reduced system longevity. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a quantum-enhanced degradation pathway optimization framework that dynamically adjusts operational strategies to extend the lifespan of PV storage systems while maintaining high efficiency. By leveraging quantum-assisted Monte Carlo simulations and hybrid quantum–classical optimization, the proposed model evaluates degradation pathways in real time and proactively optimizes energy dispatch to minimize efficiency losses due to aging effects. The framework integrates a quantum-inspired predictive maintenance algorithm, which utilizes probabilistic modeling to forecast degradation states and dynamically adjust charge–discharge cycles in storage systems. Unlike conventional optimization methods, which struggle with the complexity and stochastic nature of degradation mechanisms, the proposed approach capitalizes on quantum parallelism to assess multiple degradation scenarios simultaneously, significantly enhancing computational efficiency. A three-layer hierarchical optimization structure is introduced, ensuring real-time degradation risk assessment, periodic dispatch optimization, and long-term predictive adjustments based on PV and battery aging trends. The framework is tested on a 5 MW PV array coupled with a 2.5 MWh lithium-ion battery system, with real-world degradation models applied to reflect light-induced PV degradation (0.7% annual efficiency loss) and battery state-of-health deterioration (1.2% per 100 cycles). A hybrid quantum–classical computing environment, utilizing D-Wave’s Advantage quantum annealer alongside a classical reinforcement learning-based optimization engine, enables large-scale scenario evaluation and real-time operational adjustments. The simulation results demonstrate that the quantum-enhanced degradation optimization framework significantly reduces efficiency losses, extending the PV module’s lifespan by approximately 2.5 years and reducing battery-degradation-induced wear by 25% compared to conventional methods. The quantum-assisted predictive maintenance model ensures optimal dispatch strategies that balance energy demand with system longevity, preventing excessive degradation while maintaining grid reliability. The findings establish a novel paradigm in degradation-aware energy optimization, showcasing the potential of quantum computing in enhancing the sustainability and resilience of PV storage systems. This research paves the way for the broader integration of quantum-based decision-making in renewable energy infrastructure, enabling scalable, high-performance optimization for future energy systems.

Keywords: quantum-enhanced optimization; predictive degradation modeling; photovoltaic storage systems; hybrid quantum–classical computing; energy dispatch optimization; quantum-assisted predictive maintenance; renewable energy resilience (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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