Detailed Forecast for the Development of Electric Trucks and Tractor Units and Their Power Demand in Hamburg by 2050

Edvard Avdevičius (), Amra Jahic and Detlef Schulz ()
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Edvard Avdevičius: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Helmut-Schmidt-University, Holstenhofweg 85, 22043 Hamburg, Germany
Amra Jahic: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Helmut-Schmidt-University, Holstenhofweg 85, 22043 Hamburg, Germany
Detlef Schulz: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Helmut-Schmidt-University, Holstenhofweg 85, 22043 Hamburg, Germany

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 14, 1-28

Abstract: The global urgency to mitigate climate change by reducing transport-related emissions drives the accelerated electrification of road freight transport. This paper presents a comprehensive meta-study forecasting the development and corresponding power demand of electric trucks and tractor units in Hamburg up to 2050, emphasizing the shift from conventional to electric vehicles. Utilizing historical registration data and existing commercial and institutional reports from 2007 to 2024, the analysis estimates future distributions of electric heavy-duty vehicles across Hamburg’s 103 city quarters. Distinct approaches are evaluated to explore potential heavy-duty vehicle distribution in the city, employing Mixed-Integer Linear Programming to quantify and minimize distribution uncertainties. Power demand forecasts at this detailed geographical level enable effective infrastructure planning and strategy development. The findings serve as a foundation for Hamburg’s transition to electric heavy-duty vehicles, ensuring a sustainable, efficient, and reliable energy supply aligned with the city’s growing electrification requirements.

Keywords: electric trucks; electric tractor units; ramp-up scenarios; geographical load distribution; power demand forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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