Towards a Digital Twin for Gas Turbines: Thermodynamic Modeling, Critical Parameter Estimation, and Performance Optimization Using PINN and PSO

Jian Tiong Lim, Achnaf Habibullah and Eddie Yin Kwee Ng ()
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Jian Tiong Lim: School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Block N3, Singapore 639798, Singapore
Achnaf Habibullah: School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Block N3, Singapore 639798, Singapore
Eddie Yin Kwee Ng: School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Block N3, Singapore 639798, Singapore

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 14, 1-28

Abstract: Gas turbine (GT) modeling and optimization have been widely studied at the design level but still lacks focus on real-world operational cases. The concept of a digital twin (DT) allows for the interaction between operation data and the system dynamic performance. Among many DT studies, only a few focus on GT for thermal power plants. This study proposes a digital twin prototype framework including the following modules: process modeling, parameter estimation, and performance optimization. Provided with real-world power plant operational data, key performance parameters such as turbine inlet temperature (TIT) and specific fuel consumption (SFC) were initially unavailable, therefore necessitating further calculation using thermodynamic analysis. These parameters are then used as a target label for developing artificial neural networks (ANNs). Three ANN models with different structures are developed to predict TIT, SFC, and turbine power output (GTPO), achieving high R 2 scores of 94.03%, 82.27%, and 97.59%, respectively. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are then employed to estimate the values of the air–fuel ratio and combustion efficiency for each time index. The PINN-based estimation resulted in estimated values that align with the literature. Subsequently, an unconventional method of detecting alarms by using conformal prediction were also proposed, resulting in a significantly reduced number of alarms. The developed ANNs are then combined with particle swarm optimization (PSO) to carry out performance optimization in real time. GTPO and SFC are selected as the primary metrics for the optimization, with controllable parameters such as AFR and a fine-tuned inlet guide vane position. The results demonstrated that GTPO could be optimized with the application of conformal prediction when the true GTPO is detected to be higher than the upper range of GTPO obtained from the ANN model with a conformal prediction of a 95% confidence level. Multiple PSO variants were also compared and benchmarked to ensure an enhanced performance. The proposed PSO in this study has a lower mean loss compared to GEP. Furthermore, PSO has a lower computational cost compared to RS for hyperparameter tuning, as shown in this study. Ultimately, the proposed methods aim to enhance GT operations via a data-driven digital twin concept combination of deep learning and optimization algorithms.

Keywords: gas turbine operations; digital twin; thermodynamics; artificial neural networks; physics-informed neural networks; particle swarm optimization; conformal prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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