A Review on Risk and Reliability Analysis in Photovoltaic Power Generation

Ahmad Zaki Abdul Karim (), Mohamad Shaiful Osman and Mohd. Khairil Rahmat ()
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Ahmad Zaki Abdul Karim: Energy Research Laboratory (RENERAL), British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak 53100, Selangor, Malaysia
Mohamad Shaiful Osman: Energy Research Laboratory (RENERAL), British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak 53100, Selangor, Malaysia
Mohd. Khairil Rahmat: Energy Research Laboratory (RENERAL), British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak 53100, Selangor, Malaysia

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 14, 1-22

Abstract: Precise evaluation of risk and reliability is crucial for decision making and predicting the outcome of investment in a photovoltaic power system (PVPS) due to its intermittent source. This paper explores different methodologies for risk evaluation and reliability assessment, which can be categorized into qualitative, quantitative, and hybrid qualitative and quantitative (HQQ) approaches. Qualitative methods include failure mode analysis, graphical analysis, and hazard analysis, while quantitative methods include analytical methods, stochastic methods, Bayes’ theorem, reliability optimization, multi-criteria analysis, and data utilization. HQQ methodology combines table-based and visual analysis methods. Currently, reliability assessment techniques such as mean time between failures (MTBF), system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI), and system average interruption duration index (SAIDI) are commonly used to predict PVPS performance. However, alternative methods such as economical metrics like the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and net present value (NPV) can also be used. Therefore, a risk and reliability approach should be applied together to improve the accuracy of predicting significant aspects in the photovoltaic industry.

Keywords: energy management; sustainable energy; photovoltaic; reliability; risk analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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