Practical Application of Complementary Regulation Strategy of Run-of-River Small Hydropower and Distributed Photovoltaic Based on Multi-Scale Copula-MPC Algorithm

Xianpin Zhu, Weibo Li (), Shuai Cao and Wei Xu
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Xianpin Zhu: School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
Weibo Li: School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
Shuai Cao: School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
Wei Xu: School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 14, 1-42

Abstract: A novel multi-scale copula-based model predictive control (MPC) method is proposed to address the core regulation challenges of runoff hydropower and distributed photovoltaic systems within high-penetration renewable energy grids. Complex spatio-temporal complementarity under ecological constraints and the limitations of conventional methods were critically analyzed. The core innovation lies in integrating copula theory with MPC, enabling adaptive spatio-temporal optimization and weight adjustment to significantly enhance the efficiency of complementary regulation and overcome traditional performance bottlenecks. Key nonlinear dependencies of water–solar resources were investigated, and mainstream techniques (copula analysis, MPC, rolling optimization, adaptive weighting) were evaluated for their applicability. Future directions for improving modeling precision and intelligent adaptive control are outlined.

Keywords: copula functions; model predictive control; run-of-river hydropower; distributed photovoltaics; spatio-temporal complementarity optimization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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