Evaluation of Seismicity Induced by Geothermal Development Based on Artificial Neural Network

Kun Shan, Yanhao Zheng (), Wanqiang Cheng, Zhigang Shan and Yanjun Zhang
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Kun Shan: School of Resources and Civil Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China
Yanhao Zheng: College of Construction Engineering, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China
Wanqiang Cheng: Power China Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited, Hangzhou 311122, China
Zhigang Shan: Power China Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited, Hangzhou 311122, China
Yanjun Zhang: College of Construction Engineering, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 15, 1-21

Abstract: The process of geothermal energy development may cause induced seismic activities, posing a potential threat to the sustainable utilization and safety of geothermal energy. To effectively evaluate the danger of induced seismic activities, this paper establishes an artificial neural network model and selects nine influencing factors as the input parameters of the neurons. Based on the results of induced seismic activity under different parameter conditions, a sensitivity analysis is conducted for each parameter, and the influence degree of each parameter on the magnitude of induced seismic activity is ranked from largest to smallest as follows: in situ stress state, fault presence or absence, depth, degree of fracture aggregation, maximum in situ stress, distance to fault, injection volume, fracture dip angle, angle between fracture, and fault. Then, the weights of each parameter in the model are modified to improve the accuracy of the model. Finally, through data collection and the literature review, the Pohang EGS project in South Korea is analyzed, and the induced seismic activity influencing factors of the Pohang EGS site are analyzed and evaluated using the induced seismic activity evaluation model. The results show that the induced seismicity are all located below 3.7 km (drilling depth). As the depth increases, the seismicity magnitude also shows a gradually increasing trend. An increase in injection volume and a shortening of the distance from faults will also lead to an increase in the seismicity magnitude. When the injection volume approaches 10,000 cubic meters, the intensity of the seismic activity sharply increases, and the maximum magnitude reaches 5.34, which is consistent with the actual situation. This model can be used for the induced seismic evaluation of future EGS projects and provide a reference for project site selection and induced seismic risk warning.

Keywords: EGS; induced seismicity; neural network; influencing factors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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