Electricity Load Forecasting Method Based on the GRA-FEDformer Algorithm

Xin Jin, Tingzhe Pan (), Heyang Yu, Zongyi Wang and Wangzhang Cao
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Xin Jin: Electric Power Research Institute, China Southern Power Grid Company Limited, Guangzhou 510000, China
Tingzhe Pan: Electric Power Research Institute, China Southern Power Grid Company Limited, Guangzhou 510000, China
Heyang Yu: Electric Power Research Institute, China Southern Power Grid Company Limited, Guangzhou 510000, China
Zongyi Wang: Electric Power Research Institute, China Southern Power Grid Company Limited, Guangzhou 510000, China
Wangzhang Cao: Electric Power Research Institute, China Southern Power Grid Company Limited, Guangzhou 510000, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 15, 1-13

Abstract: In recent years, Transformer-based methods have shown full potential in power load forecasting problems. However, their computational cost is high, while it is difficult to capture the global characteristics of the time series. When the forecasting time length is long, the overall shift of the forecasting trend often occurs. Therefore, this paper proposes a gray relation analysis–frequency-enhanced decomposition transformer (GRA-FEDformer) method for forecasting power loads in power systems. Firstly, considering the impact of different weather factors on power loads, the correlation between various factors and power loads was analyzed using the GRA method to screen out the high-correlation factors as model inputs. Secondly, a frequency decomposition method for long short-time-scale components was utilized. Its combination with the transformer-based model can give the deep learning model an ability to simultaneously capture the fluctuating behavior of the short time scale and the overall trend of changes in the long time scale in power loads. The experimental results show that the proposed method had better forecasting performance than the other methods for a one-year dataset in a region of Morocco. In particular, the advantages of the proposed method were more obvious in the forecasting task with a longer forecasting length.

Keywords: power load forecasting; transformer; grey relation analysis; deep learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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