The Economic Effects of the Green Transition of the Greek Economy: An Input–Output Analysis

Theocharis Marinos, Maria Markaki, Yannis Sarafidis, Elena Georgopoulou and Sevastianos Mirasgedis ()
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Theocharis Marinos: Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 15236 Athens, Greece
Maria Markaki: Department of Management Science & Technology, Hellenic Mediterranean University, 72100 Agios Nikolaos, Greece
Yannis Sarafidis: Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 15236 Athens, Greece
Elena Georgopoulou: Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 15236 Athens, Greece
Sevastianos Mirasgedis: Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 15236 Athens, Greece

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 15, 1-45

Abstract: Decarbonization of the Greek economy requires significant investments in clean technologies. This will boost demand for goods and services and will create multiplier effects on output value added and employment, though reliance on imported technologies might increase the trade deficit. This study employs input–output analysis to estimate the direct, indirect, and multiplier effects of green transition investments on Greek output, value added, employment, and imports across five-year intervals from 2025 to 2050. Two scenarios are considered: the former is based on the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), driven by a large-scale exploitation of RES and technologies promoting electrification of final demand, while the latter (developed in the context of the CLEVER project) prioritizes energy sufficiency and efficiency interventions to reduce final energy demand. In the NECP scenario, GDP increases by 3–10% (relative to 2023), and employment increases by 4–11%. The CLEVER scenario yields smaller direct effects—owing to lower investment levels—but larger induced impacts, since energy savings boost household disposable income. The consideration of three sub-scenarios adopting different levels of import-substitution rates in key manufacturing sectors exhibits pronounced divergence, indicating that targeted industrial policies can significantly amplify the domestic economic benefits of the green transition.

Keywords: green transition; input–output analysis; macro-economic effects; renewable energy sources; energy efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:15:p:4177-:d:1719093

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