The Impact of Selected Market Factors on the Prices of Wood Industry By-Products in Poland in the Context of Climate Policy Changes

Anna Kożuch (), Dominika Cywicka, Marek Wieruszewski, Miloš Gejdoš and Krzysztof Adamowicz
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Anna Kożuch: Department of Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Avenue 29-Listopada 46, 31-425 Krakow, Poland
Dominika Cywicka: Department of Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Avenue 29-Listopada 46, 31-425 Krakow, Poland
Marek Wieruszewski: Department of Mechanical Wood Technology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Wojska Polskiego 28, 60-637 Poznan, Poland
Miloš Gejdoš: Department of Forest Harvesting Logistics and Ameliorations, Technical University in Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 24, 960 01 Zvolen, Slovakia
Krzysztof Adamowicz: Department of Forestry Economics and Technology, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Wojska Polskiego 28, 60-637 Poznan, Poland

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 16, 1-25

Abstract: The objective of this study was to analyze price variability and the factors influencing the formation of monthly prices of by-products of the wood industry in Poland between October 2017 and January 2025. The analysis considered the impact of economic variables, including energy commodity prices (natural gas and coal) and industrial wood prices, on the pricing of wood industry by-products. The adopted approach enabled the identification of key determinants shaping the prices of these by-products. The effectiveness of two tree-based regression models—Random Forest (RF) and CatBoost (CB)—was compared in the analysis. Although RF offers greater interpretability and lower computational requirements, CB proved more effective in modeling dynamic, time-dependent phenomena. The results indicate that industrial wood prices exerted a weaker influence on by-product prices than natural gas prices, suggesting that the energy sector plays a leading role in shaping biomass prices. Coal prices had only a marginal impact on the biomass market, implying that changes in coal availability and pricing did not directly translate into changes in the prices of wood industry by-products. The growing role of renewable energy sources derived from natural gas and wood biomass is contributing to the emergence of a distinct market, increasingly independent of the traditional coal market. In Poland, due to limited access to alternative energy sources, biomass plays a critical role in the decarbonization of the energy sector.

Keywords: decarbonization; bioenergy; circular economy; wood biomass; CatBoost model; Random Forest; SHAP value (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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