Levelized Cost of Electricity Prediction and End-User Price Deduction Model for Power Systems with High Renewable Energy Penetration

Wenqin Song, Zhuxiu Wang, Xu Yan, Xumin Liu, Zhongfu Tan () and Yuan Feng ()
Additional contact information
Wenqin Song: State Grid Gansu Electric Power Research Institute of Economics and Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China
Zhuxiu Wang: State Grid Gansu Electric Power Research Institute of Economics and Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China
Xu Yan: State Grid Gansu Electric Power Research Institute of Economics and Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China
Xumin Liu: State Grid Gansu Electric Power Research Institute of Economics and Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China
Zhongfu Tan: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Yuan Feng: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 16, 1-15

Abstract: With the rapid growth in the scale of high-percentage new energy generation, the structure of the new power system is changing. Influenced by the uncertainty and zero marginal cost characteristics of new energy, the security cost required by the power system under the high proportion of new energy access has increased dramatically. How to accurately measure the cost of the power system and assess the trend of the system cost changes and the impact on its end-user price has become critical. Accordingly, this paper creatively proposes a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) prediction and end-user price deduction model for power systems with high renewable energy penetration. Firstly, the power system factor cost prediction model is constructed from the three dimensions of power-side, grid-side, and system operation cost. Secondly, a levelized cost of electricity prediction model is constructed based on the above model. Again, based on the analysis of the end-user price composition, the end-user price deduction model is proposed. Finally, the data of Gansu Province is selected for example analysis, and the results show that, in 2060, the power LCOE will be 0.064 USD/kWh, the system LCOE will be 0.103 USD/kWh, and the end-user price will rise to 0.1 USD/kWh.

Keywords: cost prediction; end-user price deduction; LCOE; high renewable energy penetration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/16/4433/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/16/4433/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:16:p:4433-:d:1728427

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().