Energy Transition 2024–2025: New Demand Vectors, Technology Oversupply, and Shrinking Net-Zero 2050 Premium

Henryk Wojtaszek ()
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Henryk Wojtaszek: SGMK Nicolaus Copernicus Superior School, College of Economics and Management, 00-695 Warsaw, Poland

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 16, 1-20

Abstract: The global energy transition is accelerating, yet new and underestimated challenges have emerged since 2024. Rising electricity demand—driven by artificial intelligence data centres, extreme heatwaves, and the electrification of transport—has exceeded earlier projections and shifted the system’s pressure point from generation to flexibility. At the same time, an oversupply of solar PV panels and lithium-ion batteries is lowering costs but increasing the risk of trade conflicts and supply chain concentration. This article presents a meta-analysis of 12 energy scenarios from 2024 to 2025, based on institutional outlooks (IEA, BNEF, and WEF) and peer-reviewed publications selected using transparent quality criteria (TRL thresholds, JRC guidance, and data transparency). A difference-in-differences method is applied to identify changes between editions. Results show a demand increase of over 2200 TWh by 2035, a decline in the “Net-Zero premium” from 19% to 15%, and a pressing need to redirect investment from gas infrastructure to grids, storage, and hydrogen. A case study for Central and Eastern Europe reveals that Poland will require USD 5–6 billion annually, primarily for transmission networks. These findings support a capital shift toward resilient and socially acceptable decarbonisation pathways.

Keywords: energy transition; Net-Zero premium; PV oversupply; energy storage; grid modernisation; Central and Eastern Europe; AI electricity demand; scenario analysis; investment gap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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