Structural Drivers of Poland’s Renewable Energy Transition (2010–2023): Empirical Insights from Regression and Cluster Analysis

Bożena Gajdzik (), Radosław Wolniak () and Wieslaw Wes Grebski
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Bożena Gajdzik: Department of Industrial Informatics, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
Radosław Wolniak: Faculty of Organization and Management, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
Wieslaw Wes Grebski: Penn State Hazleton, Pennsylvania State University, 76 University Drive, Hazleton, PA 18202, USA

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 17, 1-26

Abstract: This research investigates the structural drivers of Poland’s energy transition to decarbonization and wider sustainable development goals. With a focus on the period 2010–2023, we use longitudinal regression analysis and cluster-based segmentation to examine the dynamic interactions between investment expenditure, deployed renewable capacity, and innovation expenditure in driving renewable electricity production. Our findings suggest that although installed capacity continues to be the nearest cause of renewable energy output, innovation expenditure has an extraordinarily large marginal effect, acknowledging the system-transformational role of technology innovation in low-carbon systems. Regression specifications suggested that the establishment of Poland’s transformation process is not only guided by the growth in capital, but also by the systemic embedment of knowledge-driven innovation. Cluster analysis reveals three successive stages of sectoral development—initial growth (2010–2013), consistent expansion (2014–2019), and rapid transformation (2020–2023)—with blended policy actions and structural effects. Despite the long shadow of Poland’s coal-linked past and post-2015 stagnation in innovation, the results signal a major move towards a more low-emitting, resilient power system. The report offers empirical facts and prescriptive evidence to guide policy formulation supporting collective, innovation-driven approaches essential for driving energy change in coal-dominated economies.

Keywords: renewable energy; energy transition; sustainable development; sustainability; installed capacity; decarbonization; green innovation; renewable energy sources (RESs) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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