Forecasting the Number of Electric Vehicles in Turkey Towards 2030: SARIMA Approach

Mahmut Sami Saraç () and Mehmet Ali Ertürk
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Mahmut Sami Saraç: Department of Intelligent Transportation Systems, Institute of Science, Istanbul University, Istanbul 34134, Turkey
Mehmet Ali Ertürk: Computer Engineering Department, Istanbul University, Istanbul 34134, Turkey

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 18, 1-19

Abstract: This study endeavors to project the trajectory of electric and hybrid vehicle adoption through 2030, operating under the premise that specific hybrid models can harness electricity from charging stations akin to fully electric counterparts. Employing the seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) time series model, we preprocess the current counts of electric and hybrid passenger vehicles. Additionally, we use this model to forecast future counts. Our preprocessing findings suggest that Turkey currently experiences a deficit of approximately 26% in electric and hybrid vehicles, considering conventional market dynamics from 2018 to 2023. Furthermore, assuming the observed seasonal fluctuations in passenger vehicle sales will similarly influence electric and hybrid vehicle demand, a secondary preprocessing is conducted on the dataset. Applying this methodology, our projections indicate Turkey will approach a total of 2.6 million electric and hybrid vehicles by the close of 2029, offering insights for policymakers and private stakeholders in charting the course of charging infrastructure development.

Keywords: electric vehicles in Turkey; data preprocessing; SARIMA forecasting model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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