Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment of Distributed Energy Resources via Scenario-Based AC Optimal Power Flow

Laurenţiu L. Anton () and Marija D. Ilić
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Laurenţiu L. Anton: Electrical Engineering & Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
Marija D. Ilić: Electrical Engineering & Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 18, 1-38

Abstract: As electric grids decarbonize and distributed energy resources (DERs) become increasingly prevalent, interconnection assessments must evolve to reflect operational variability and control flexibility. This paper highlights key modeling limitations observed in practice and reviews approaches for modeling uncertainty. It then introduces a Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment (PDA) framework designed to complement and extend existing procedures. The framework integrates scenario-based AC optimal power flow (AC OPF), corrective dispatch, and optional multi-temporal constraints. Together, these form a structured methodology for quantifying DER utilization, deliverability, and reliability under uncertainty in load, generation, and topology. Outputs include interpretable metrics with confidence intervals that inform siting decisions and evaluate compliance with reliability thresholds across sampled operating conditions. A case study on Puerto Rico’s publicly available bulk power system model demonstrates the framework’s application using minimal input data, consistent with current interconnection practice. Across staged fossil generation retirements, the PDA identifies high-value DER sites and regions requiring additional reactive power support. Results are presented through mean dispatch signals, reliability metrics, and geospatial visualizations, demonstrating how the framework provides transparent, data-driven siting recommendations. The framework’s modular design supports incremental adoption within existing workflows, encouraging broader use of AC OPF in interconnection and planning contexts.

Keywords: distributed energy resources; interconnection studies; AC optimal power flow; scenario-based modeling; corrective dispatch; deliverability; expected utilization; Puerto Rico; hybrid solar siting; decarbonization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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