Exponential Growth, Convergence and Deconcentration of Demand for Renewable Hydrogen and E-Fuels to 2030

Mariusz Pyra ()
Additional contact information
Mariusz Pyra: Faculty of Economic Sciences, John Paul II University, 21-500 Biala Podlaska, Poland

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 18, 1-24

Abstract: Rapid advances in renewable technologies and cross-sector integration are reshaping demand for renewable hydrogen and e-fuels. This study evaluates global and European demand dynamics over 2018–2030, focusing on growth trajectories, regional convergence, and market structure. A concise empirical toolkit—including the Mann–Kendall trend test, log-linear regression, correlation analysis, and concentration metrics such as the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI)—is applied to harmonised datasets. The results indicate a robust upward trajectory of demand, strengthening co-movement across regions, and gradual deconcentration of market shares. At the same time, growth remains heterogeneous and sensitive to policy and cost shocks, implying exposure to volatility. Policy relevance includes the need for coordinated support schemes, timely infrastructure deployment, and diversified investment to capture convergence benefits while mitigating risk. The innovation resides in the demand-side, harmonised multi-region perspective and the combined utilisation of convergence- and concentration-oriented diagnostics with uncertainty bands, yielding replicable, policy-relevant indicators.

Keywords: e-fuels; renewable hydrogen; market convergence; exponential growth; investment risk analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/18/4929/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/18/4929/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:18:p:4929-:d:1750914

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Cassie Shen

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().