A Feasibility Analysis of Wind Energy Potential and Seasonal Forecasting Trends in Thatta District: A Project to Combat the Energy Crisis in Pakistan

Jahangeer Khan Bhutto, Zhijun Tong, Tayyab Raza Fraz, Mazhar Baloch (), Haider Ali, Jiquan Zhang, Xingpeng Liu and Yousef A. Al-Masnay
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Jahangeer Khan Bhutto: Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Zhijun Tong: Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Tayyab Raza Fraz: Department of Statistics, University of Karachi, Karachi 75270, Pakistan
Mazhar Baloch: College of Engineering, A’Sharqiyah University, Ibra 400, Oman
Haider Ali: Engineering Research Center of Low-Carbon Treatment and Green Development, State Environmental Protection Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Jiquan Zhang: Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Xingpeng Liu: Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Yousef A. Al-Masnay: Key Laboratory of GIS and RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Xinjiang, Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 1, 1-21

Abstract: Wind energy has emerged as a viable alternative to fossil fuels due to its clean and cost-effective nature. Pakistan, facing growing energy demands and the imperative to reduce carbon emissions, has invested significantly in wind power to supply electric power in rural and urban communities, particularly in the Thatta district of Sindh Province of Pakistan. However, the sustainability of wind energy generation is contingent upon consistent and sufficient wind resources. This study examines the wind potential of Thatta district from 2004 to 2023 to assess its suitability for large-scale wind power development. To evaluate the wind potential of Thatta district, seasonal wind speed and direction data were collected and analyzed. Wind shear at different heights was determined using the power law, and wind potential maps were generated using GIS interpolation techniques. Betz’s law was employed to assess wind turbine power density. Box–Jenkins ARIMA and SARIMA models were applied to predict future wind patterns. This study revealed that Thatta district experienced sufficient wind speeds during the study period, with averages of 9.7 m/s, 7.6 m/s, 7.4 m/s, and 4.8 m/s for summer, autumn, spring, and winter, respectively. However, a concerning trend of decreasing wind speeds has been observed since 2009. The most significant reductions occurred in summer, coinciding with Pakistan’s peak electricity demand. While Thatta district has historically demonstrated potential for wind energy, the declining wind speeds pose a challenge to the sustainability of wind power projects. Further research is necessary to identify the causes of this trend and to explore mitigation strategies.

Keywords: wind power generation; GIS and IDW; short-term forecasting; ARIMA; SARIMA; GLS method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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