Mapping Solar–Wind Complementarity with BARRA

Abhnil Prasad () and Merlinde Kay ()
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Abhnil Prasad: School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Merlinde Kay: School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 20, 1-21

Abstract: Australia’s renewable energy transition will be dominated by solar and wind power, yet their contrasting variability necessitates hybrid integration with storage to ensure reliability. This study uses Australian reanalysis data, BARRA (Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis for Australia), to quantify solar (global horizontal irradiance, GHI) and wind (wind power density, WPD) resources by examining their availability, variability, synergy, episode length, and lulls. The novelty of this work is the use of rarely examined metrics such as variability, availability, episode length, and extended lull events (Dunkelflaute) with a high-resolution and 29-year duration reanalysis dataset. The results show that solar is the more reliable resource, with high daytime availability and relatively short lulls. Wind, despite being abundant in coastal regions, is highly intermittent, characterized by a skewed distribution, low availability, and extended periods of lulls. Synergy metrics demonstrate significant complementarity, with combined solar–wind synergy reducing deficits in single resources, while joint non-synergy events define critical system vulnerabilities. Importantly, hybrid systems limit maximum joint lulls, which are far shorter than wind-only extremes, thereby reducing the scale of long-duration storage required. These findings underscore that, while solar provides a stable baseline supply and wind contributes spatial diversity, hybrid systems supported by batteries offer a resilient pathway. Synergy and non-synergy statistics provide essential parameters for optimally sizing storage to withstand rare but severe shortfalls, ensuring a reliable, utility-scale renewable future for Australia.

Keywords: synergy; solar; wind; reanalysis; episodes; lulls (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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