Enhancing Rural Electrification in Tigray: A Geospatial Approach to Hybrid Wind-Solar Site Selection

Tsige Gebregergs Tesfay () and Mulu Bayray Kahsay
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Tsige Gebregergs Tesfay: School of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Ethiopian Institute of Technology—Mekelle (EiT—M), Mekelle University, Mekelle 0231, Ethiopia
Mulu Bayray Kahsay: School of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Ethiopian Institute of Technology—Mekelle (EiT—M), Mekelle University, Mekelle 0231, Ethiopia

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 21, 1-30

Abstract: Renewable energy sources offer a promising future, backed by mature technologies and a viable pathway toward sustainable energy systems. However, careful planning is necessary to efficiently utilize these resources, especially during site selection. Many rural areas lack access to grid electricity, making off-grid hybrid wind-solar power an attractive solution. In the Tigray region of Ethiopia, no such research has been conducted before. This study aims to identify suitable sites for hybrid wind-solar power for rural electrification using Geographic Information System (GIS), Analytic Hierarchy Process, and Monte Carlo simulation. The criteria fall into three categories: Climate, Topography, and Infrastructure, prioritized through pairwise comparisons by thirteen experts from five organizations engaged in renewable energy research, planning, and operations. Monte Carlo simulation was used for sensitivity analysis to address uncertainties in expert judgments and validate the rankings. The spatial analysis reveals 6470 km 2 as highly suitable for off-grid solar, 76 km 2 for off-grid wind with predominant easterly winds, and 177 km 2 as most favorable for hybrid generation. Areas of good suitability measure 447 km 2 for wind, 44,128 km 2 for solar, and 16,695 km 2 for hybrid systems. Based on this assessment, techno-economic analysis quantified the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) under varying solar–wind shares and battery autonomy days. The analysis shows a minimum LCOE of $0.23/kWh with one-day storage and $0.58/kWh with three-day storage, indicating shorter autonomy is more cost-effective while longer autonomy enhances reliability. Sensitivity analysis shows financial parameters, particularly discount rate and battery capital cost, dominate system economics.

Keywords: off-grid wind power; off-grid solar power; hybrid wind-solar; wind and solar off-grid site selection; AHP; GIS; resource mapping; Monte Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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