Intelligent Load Forecasting for Central Air Conditioning Using an Optimized Hybrid Deep Learning Framework

Wei He, Rui Hua, Yulong Xiao, Yuce Liu, Chaohui Zhou and Chaoshun Li ()
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Wei He: China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd., Beijing 100032, China
Rui Hua: China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd., Beijing 100032, China
Yulong Xiao: School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
Yuce Liu: China Three Gorges Corporation, Wuhan 430010, China
Chaohui Zhou: China Three Gorges Corporation, Wuhan 430010, China
Chaoshun Li: School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 21, 1-22

Abstract: Accurate load forecasting of central air conditioning (CAC) systems is crucial for enhancing energy efficiency and minimizing operational costs. However, the complex nonlinear correlations among meteorological factors, water system dynamics, and cooling demand make this task challenging. To address these issues, this study proposes a novel hybrid forecasting model termed IWOA-BiTCN-BiGRU-SA, which integrates the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm (IWOA), Bidirectional Temporal Convolutional Networks (BiTCN), Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Units (BiGRU), and a Self-attention mechanism (SA). BiTCN is adopted to extract temporal dependencies and multi-scale features, BiGRU captures long-term bidirectional correlations, and the self-attention mechanism enhances feature weighting adaptively. Furthermore, IWOA is employed to optimize the hyperparameters of BiTCN and BiGRU, improving training stability and generalization. Experimental results based on real CAC operational data demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms traditional methods such as LSTM, GRU, and TCN, as well as hybrid deep learning benchmark models. Compared to all comparison models, the root mean square error (RMSE) decreased by 13.72% to 56.66%. This research highlights the application potential of the IWSO-BiTCN-BiGRU-Attention framework in practical load forecasting and intelligent energy management for large-scale CAC systems.

Keywords: central air conditioning; load forecasting; BiTCN; BiGRU; self-attention mechanism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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