Overview of the e-Fuels Market, Projects, and the State of the Art of Production Facilities

Olaf Dybiński (), Łukasz Szabłowski, Aliaksandr Martsinchyk, Arkadiusz Szczęśniak, Jarosław Milewski, Andrzej Grzebielec and Pavel Shuhayeu
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Olaf Dybiński: Institute of Heat Engineering, Faculty of Power and Aeronautical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, 21/25 Nowowiejska Street, 00-665 Warsaw, Poland
Łukasz Szabłowski: Institute of Heat Engineering, Faculty of Power and Aeronautical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, 21/25 Nowowiejska Street, 00-665 Warsaw, Poland
Aliaksandr Martsinchyk: Institute of Heat Engineering, Faculty of Power and Aeronautical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, 21/25 Nowowiejska Street, 00-665 Warsaw, Poland
Arkadiusz Szczęśniak: Institute of Heat Engineering, Faculty of Power and Aeronautical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, 21/25 Nowowiejska Street, 00-665 Warsaw, Poland
Jarosław Milewski: Institute of Heat Engineering, Faculty of Power and Aeronautical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, 21/25 Nowowiejska Street, 00-665 Warsaw, Poland
Andrzej Grzebielec: Institute of Heat Engineering, Faculty of Power and Aeronautical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, 21/25 Nowowiejska Street, 00-665 Warsaw, Poland
Pavel Shuhayeu: Institute of Heat Engineering, Faculty of Power and Aeronautical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, 21/25 Nowowiejska Street, 00-665 Warsaw, Poland

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 3, 1-34

Abstract: E-fuels, or synthetic fuels produced from green hydrogen and captured CO 2 , are a promising solution for achieving climate neutrality by replacing fossil fuels in transportation and industry. They help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and efficiently utilize renewable energy surpluses. This study aims to assess the current state and future potential of e-fuel production technologies, focusing on their scalability and market integration. A comprehensive literature review and market trend analysis, including modeling based on historical data and growth forecasts, were used to estimate market penetration. Results indicate that e-fuels could reach a 10% market share within the next 5 years, potentially reaching 30% in 20 years, particularly in aviation, maritime transport, and the steel industry. Ongoing projects expected to be completed this decade may cover about 20% of the global liquid fuel demand for transportation. However, challenges such as high costs, scalability, and recent project terminations due to funding shortages highlight the need for substantial investment, regulatory support, and innovation. Global collaboration and policy alignment are essential for the successful development and integration of e-fuels as a critical pathway to decarbonization.

Keywords: e-fuel; Fischer–Tropsch; e-methanol; hydrogen (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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