Analysis of Kazakhstan Oil Shale Deposits in Accordance with Resource Estimation Practices for Consideration of Potential Shale Oil Reserves

Sergei Sabanov (), Alar Konist and Ruslana Korshunova
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Sergei Sabanov: School of Mining and Geosciences, Nazarbayev University, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan
Alar Konist: Department of Energy Technology, Tallinn University of Technology, Energy and Fuels, 19086 Tallinn, Estonia
Ruslana Korshunova: School of Mining and Geosciences, Nazarbayev University, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 3, 1-18

Abstract: Most oil shale deposits in Kazakhstan were estimated without detailed calculations of the grade and tonnages and included low confidence categories, i.e., Inferred, Off-Balance, and Non-Economic oil shales, on which cannot be given any oil reserves. An analysis of Kazakhstan oil shale deposits in accordance with resource estimation practices for consideration of potential shale oil tonnages has been produced. The developed methodology considers extraction and processing recoveries of conventional and unconventional mining methods. The methodology uses Monte Carlo modeling to estimate a range of oil content and oil recoveries and uses the event tree analysis to demonstrate how the initial oil shale material tonnages and grades go through various fault and success branches, considering probabilities distributions and estimating potential shale oil tones at the end. As a result, this estimation methodology has been validated by high-ranked resource category oil shale deposits, which demonstrated the range of potential shale oil in the range of 10.7–16.8 Mt at the 50% confidence level. The results will be used for further consideration in financial-economic feasibility studies, which must take into account operational and capital expenses, product sale prices and market, and social-environmental aspects.

Keywords: retorting; shale oil reserves; fault tree; probability distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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