The Impact of Electricity Generation on CO 2 Emissions in Türkiye: An Agent-Based Simulation Approach

Denizhan Guven (), Mehmet Ozgur Kayalica and Omer Lutfi Sen
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Denizhan Guven: Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, ITU Ayazaga Campus, 34469 Maslak, Türkiye
Mehmet Ozgur Kayalica: Energy Institute, Istanbul Technical University, 34469 Istanbul, Türkiye
Omer Lutfi Sen: Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, ITU Ayazaga Campus, 34469 Maslak, Türkiye

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 3, 1-33

Abstract: This study investigates the impact of energy, economic, and environmental policies on Türkiye’s energy dynamics and CO 2 emissions using climate models and an agent-based simulation (ABM) framework. By integrating climate projections with policy scenarios, it assesses how energy transitions and climate change affect renewable energy sources (RES), cooling demands, and CO 2 emissions from electricity generation. Methods include selecting suitable Global Climate Models (GCMs), evaluating climate change impacts on RES performance, and simulating policy effects through ABM across one base and nine policy scenarios from 2023 to 2040. The study highlights the critical role of policy interventions in influencing emissions trends and energy prices. It identifies renewable energy subsidies and low-carbon strategies, such as nuclear power support, as effective tools for reducing emissions and stabilizing energy costs. The methodologies and findings provide actionable insights for policymakers globally, emphasizing the importance of integrating climate data with policy planning.

Keywords: climate change; agent-based model; electricity market; CO 2 emission; policy implication; energy policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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