Application of State Models in a Binary–Temporal Representation for the Prediction and Modelling of Crude Oil Prices

Michał Dominik Stasiak (), Żaneta Staszak, Joanna Siwek and Dawid Wojcieszak
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Michał Dominik Stasiak: Department of Investment and Real Estate, Poznań University of Economics and Business, al. Niepodleglosci 10, 61-875 Poznań, Poland
Żaneta Staszak: The Faculty of Civil and Transport Engineering, Poznan University of Technology, 5 M. Skłodowska-Curie Square, 60-965 Poznań, Poland
Joanna Siwek: Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Artificial Intelligence, Adam Mickiewicz University, Uniwersytetu Poznańskiego 4, 61-614 Poznań, Poland
Dawid Wojcieszak: Department of Biosystems Engineering, Poznań University of Life Sciences, ul. Wojska Polskiego 50, 60-627 Poznań, Poland

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 3, 1-14

Abstract: Crude oil prices have a key meaning for the economies of most countries. Their levels shape the general production costs in many sectors. Oil prices are also a base for financial derivatives like CFD contracts, which are popular nowadays. Due to these reasons, the possibility of an effective prediction of the direction of future changes in the price of crude oil is especially significant. Most existing works focus on the analysis of daily closing prices. This kind of approach results, on the one hand, in losing important information about the dynamics of changes during the day. On the other hand, it does not allow for the modelling of short-term price changes that are especially important in cases of financial derivatives having crude oil as their base instrument. The goal of the following article is the analysis of possible applications of a binary–temporal representation in the modelling and construction of effective decision support systems on the crude oil market. The analysis encompasses all researched state models, e.g., those applying mean and trend analysis. Also, the selection of parameters was optimized for Brent crude oil rates. The presented research confirms the high effectiveness of our state modelling system in predicting oil prices on a level that allows for the construction of financially effective investment decision support systems. The obtained results were verified based on proper backtests from different quotation periods. The presented results can be used both in scientific analyses and in the construction of investment support tools for the crude oil market.

Keywords: oil market; oil price forecasting; state modelling; investment decision support (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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