Collaborative Forecasting of Multiple Energy Loads in Integrated Energy Systems Based on Feature Extraction and Deep Learning

Zhe Wang, Jiali Duan, Fengzhang Luo () and Xiaoyu Qiu ()
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Zhe Wang: State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company, Tianjin 300010, China
Jiali Duan: State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company, Tianjin 300010, China
Fengzhang Luo: Key Laboratory of Smart Grid of Ministry of Education, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
Xiaoyu Qiu: Key Laboratory of Smart Grid of Ministry of Education, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 5, 1-16

Abstract: Accurate load forecasting is crucial for the safe, stable, and economical operation of integrated energy systems. However, directly applying single models to predict coupled cooling, heating, and electric loads under complex influencing factors often yields unsatisfactory results. This paper proposes a collaborative load forecasting method based on feature extraction and deep learning. First, the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise algorithm decomposes load data, and a dynamic time warping-based k-medoids clustering algorithm reconstructs subsequences aligned with system load components. Second, a correlation analysis identifies the key influencing factors for model input. Then, a multi-task parallel learning framework combining a regression convolutional neural network and long short-term memory networks is developed to predict reconstructed subsequences. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed model achieves mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of 2.24%, 2.75%, and 1.69% for electricity, cooling, and heating loads on summer workdays, with mean accuracy (MA) values of 97.76%, 97.25%, and 98.31%, respectively. For winter workdays, the MAPE values are 2.92%, 1.66%, and 2.87%, with MA values of 97.08%, 98.34%, and 97.13%. Compared to traditional single-task models, the weighted mean accuracy (WMA) improves by 2.01% and 2.33% in summer and winter, respectively, validating its superiority. This method provides a high-precision tool for the planning and operation of integrated energy systems.

Keywords: integrated energy system; load forecasting; empirical mode decomposition; k-medoids clustering; multi-task learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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