Comparative Analysis of Levelized Cost of Heat in Implemented and Calculated Heat Supply Systems with Heat Pumps in Ukraine

Valentyna Stanytsina, Vitalii Horskyi, Serhii Danyliv, Artur Zaporozhets (), Svitlana Kovtun, Oleksandr Maevsky, Iurii Garbuz and Volodymyr Artemchuk
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Valentyna Stanytsina: General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
Vitalii Horskyi: General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
Serhii Danyliv: General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
Artur Zaporozhets: General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
Svitlana Kovtun: General Energy Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
Oleksandr Maevsky: Department of Computer Engineering and Cybersecurity, Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, 10005 Zhytomyr, Ukraine
Iurii Garbuz: G.E. Pukhov Institute for Modelling in Energy Engineering of the NAS of Ukraine, 03164 Kyiv, Ukraine
Volodymyr Artemchuk: Center for Information-Analytical and Technical Support of Nuclear Power Facilities Monitoring of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 03142 Kyiv, Ukraine

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 5, 1-21

Abstract: The adoption of heat pumps in Ukraine is increasing, yet precise data on their economic viability are limited. This study compares the Levelized Cost of Heat ( LCOH ) in implemented and calculated heat pump systems under Ukrainian conditions. Analyzing real installations and theoretical projects, we assess ground-source and air-source heat pumps, focusing on technical indicators like the Seasonal Coefficient of Performance (SCOP) and economic factors such as the investment costs and discount rates. The findings reveal that promotional materials often underestimate the costs, leading to significant discrepancies in the LCOH . Implemented ground-source heat pump projects have investment costs constituting 20–40% of the LCOH , while for air-source heat pumps, this is 60–65%. The discount rate significantly impacts the LCOH , more than electricity costs. Air-source heat pumps in large buildings offer the lowest LCOH , whereas ground-source heat pumps in small houses have a higher LCOH due to the substantial capital investments. This study concludes that while heat pump systems can enhance energy efficiency and reduce environmental impacts in Ukraine, their economic competitiveness hinges on accurate cost assessments and favorable economic conditions.

Keywords: heat pumps; Levelized Cost of Heat ( LCOH ); techno-economic analysis; ground-source heat pumps; air-source heat pumps; Ukraine; renewable energy; energy efficiency; discount rate; heat supply systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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