The Impact of the Urban Heat Island and Future Climate on Urban Building Energy Use in a Midwestern U.S. Neighborhood

Farzad Hashemi (), Parisa Najafian, Negar Salahi, Sedigheh Ghiasi and Ulrike Passe ()
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Farzad Hashemi: School of Architecture and Planning, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA
Parisa Najafian: School of Architecture and Planning, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA
Negar Salahi: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019, USA
Sedigheh Ghiasi: Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA
Ulrike Passe: College of Design, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 6, 1-29

Abstract: Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) datasets, widely used in building energy modeling, overlook Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects and future climate trends by relying on long-term data from rural stations such as airports. This study addresses this limitation by integrating Urban Weather Generator (UWG) simulations with CCWorldWeatherGen projections to produce microclimate-adjusted and future weather scenarios. These datasets were then incorporated into an Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) framework using Urban Modeling Interface (UMI) to evaluate energy performance across a low-income residential neighborhood in Des Moines, Iowa. Results show that UHI intensity will rise from an annual average of 0.55 °C under current conditions to 0.60 °C by 2050 and 0.63 °C by 2080, with peak intensities in summer. The UHI elevates cooling Energy Use Intensity (EUI) by 7% today, with projections indicating a sharp increase—91% by 2050 and 154% by 2080. The UHI will further amplify cooling demand by 2.3% and 6.2% in 2050 and 2080, respectively. Conversely, heating EUI will decline by 20.0% by 2050 and 40.1% by 2080, with the UHI slightly reducing heating demand. Insulation mitigates cooling loads but becomes less effective for heating demand over time. These findings highlight the need for climate-adaptive policies, building retrofits, and UHI mitigation to manage future cooling demand.

Keywords: urban heat island (UHI); CCWorldWeatherGen; urban building energy modeling (UBEM); thermal resistance (R-Value); low-income communities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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