Prediction of Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Using BiLSTM–Informer Based on Secondary Decomposition

Ruoqi Zhang, Zishuo Xu (), Shuangquan Liu (), Kaixiang Fu and Jie Zhang
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Ruoqi Zhang: China-EU Institute for Clean and Renewable Energy, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430000, China
Zishuo Xu: China-EU Institute for Clean and Renewable Energy, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430000, China
Shuangquan Liu: System Operation Department, Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd., Kunming 650011, China
Kaixiang Fu: System Operation Department, Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd., Kunming 650011, China
Jie Zhang: System Operation Department, Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd., Kunming 650011, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 6, 1-15

Abstract: Photovoltaic power generation as a green energy source is often used in power systems, but the volatility of PV output and randomness of the problem affect the stability of the power-grid power supply; so, for the problem of low prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power generation under different weather conditions, this paper proposes a Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), combined with a Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) secondary decomposition method for the original signal decomposition, to reduce the signal volatility and reduce the complexity of feature mapping the PV data, followed by the use of a BiLSTM model to model the timing information of the decomposed IMF. Simultaneously, the Informer model predicts the components obtained from the secondary decomposition, and finally, the subsequence is reconstructed and superimposed to obtain the PV power prediction value. The results show that the RMSE and MAE of the proposed model are improved by up to 10.91% and 17.33% on the annual PV dataset, with high prediction accuracy and stability, which can effectively predict the ultra-short-term power of PV power plants.

Keywords: photovoltaic power prediction; secondary decomposition; BiLSTM; informer (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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