 Scenario-Based Analysis of the Impact of the Electrification of the Delivery Fleet on the Sustainability of E-Commerce—Forecast Until 2050Mariusz Pyra ()
Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 6, 1-19 Abstract: This study analyzes the potential impact of the electrification of the delivery fleet on sustainability in the e-commerce sector, forecasting trends up to 2050. Scenario analysis, forecast models, and Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to evaluate the following three scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), partial electrification, and full electrification. This study focuses on reducing CO 2 emissions, optimizing operating costs, and delivery time efficiency. The results indicate that full electrification can reduce CO 2 emissions by more than 75% and operating costs by around 30% by 2050, while improving delivery time by around 15%. Partial electrification shows moderate benefits, with a reduction in CO 2 emissions of around 50% and cost savings of 15%. This study emphasizes the significant potential of fleet electrification in solving environmental problems and increasing operational efficiency in e-commerce logistics, while identifying challenges in implementation and areas for future research. Keywords: e-commerce; sustainability; electric vehicles; last-mile delivery; CO 2 emissions; operational efficiency; scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:6:p:1503-:d:1614874 Access Statistics for this article Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao More articles in Energies from MDPI |
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