Estimating the CO 2 Impacts of Wind Energy in the Transition Towards Carbon-Neutral Energy Systems

Hannele Holttinen (), Tomi J. Lindroos, Antti Lehtilä, Tiina Koljonen, Juha Kiviluoma and Magnus Korpås
Additional contact information
Hannele Holttinen: Department of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, School of Engineering, Aalto University, P.O. Box 14400, 00076 AALTO Espoo, Finland
Tomi J. Lindroos: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd., P.O. Box 1000, 02044 VTT Espoo, Finland
Antti Lehtilä: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd., P.O. Box 1000, 02044 VTT Espoo, Finland
Tiina Koljonen: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd., P.O. Box 1000, 02044 VTT Espoo, Finland
Juha Kiviluoma: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd., P.O. Box 1000, 02044 VTT Espoo, Finland
Magnus Korpås: Department of Electric Energy, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim, Norway

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 6, 1-22

Abstract: In this study, the CO 2 reduction benefits of wind energy in the transition towards a carbon-neutral energy system are explored. The marginal benefits of wind energy in replacing CO 2 emissions in electricity generation are gradually declining as carbon-emission-reduction targets are fulfilled. However, there is still the potential to reduce emissions by replacing fossil fuels in other energy sectors via electrification. Using the Finnish TIMES-VTT energy system model, this study simulates the impacts of different wind energy scenarios between 2030 and 2050, analyzing the effects of adding or removing 5 TWh of wind energy on power generation. Our findings indicate that the reduction benefits of wind energy vary over time, stemming initially from the generation of electricity but they are increasingly being driven by electrification through lowered electricity prices, and fuel switching, like the replacement of bioenergy in heating and fuel production. Between the years 2030 and 2050, an average marginal emission reduction of 180–270 gCO 2 eq/kWh was seen, rising to 250–320 gCO 2 eq/kWh if the impact on reduced carbon sinks through wood chip use was taken into account. Issues using marginal, substitution impacts from simulations are discussed; however, no straightforward methods for capturing the cumulative benefits of assets over their lifetime exist. In transitioning towards a net-zero-carbon energy system, other issues like costs, land use, and social aspects will become more relevant than emission substitution.

Keywords: wind energy; energy systems; greenhouse gas emissions; CO 2 emissions; net-zero energy system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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