Impact of Carbon Neutrality Goals on China’s Coal Industry: Mechanisms and Evidence

Shihua Ren (), Xiaomiao Jiao, Dezhi Zheng, Yaning Zhang, Heping Xie and Rui Zhang
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Shihua Ren: Science and Technology Center, China Coal Research Institute, Beijing 100013, China
Xiaomiao Jiao: Science and Technology Center, China Coal Research Institute, Beijing 100013, China
Dezhi Zheng: Science and Technology Center, China Coal Research Institute, Beijing 100013, China
Yaning Zhang: Science and Technology Center, China Coal Research Institute, Beijing 100013, China
Heping Xie: Institute of Deep Earth Sciences and Green Energy, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
Rui Zhang: School of Management, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 7, 1-21

Abstract: China’s coal industry is reckoned as one of the topmost contributors to global carbon emissions, and as a result, poses severe challenges both to human health and climate change mitigation efforts. Achieving carbon neutrality requires thorough analyses of mechanisms driving the coal sector’s transition. This study employs a structural model to investigate the transmission pathways through/by which the “dual carbon” goals influence the coal industry, using a policy text quantification approach to assess specific carbon reduction measures. Findings reveal that the impact of the “dual carbon” target on the coal industry operates through multiple pathways. Carbon reduction policies significantly enhance technical advancements, social and economic factors, energy-saving measures, and alternative energy development, all of which indirectly affect coal supply. Notably, the pathway from coal demand to coal supply shows a high path coefficient of 1.121, far surpassing the path coefficient from factor input to coal supply, measured at 0.169. This highlights coal demand as the pivotal intermediary variable in determining the “dual carbon” target’s impact on the coal industry. While current technologies and alternative energy sources have limited immediate effects on coal supply, they hold significant potential as transformative factors in the future.

Keywords: carbon peak and carbon neutrality target; coal industry; transmission mechanism; structural equation model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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