Multi-Input Modeling Approach to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on Grand Inga Hydropower Potential

Salomon Salumu Zahera (), Ånund Killingtveit and Musandji Fuamba
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Salomon Salumu Zahera: École Polytechnique, Montreal, QC H3T 0A3, Canada
Ånund Killingtveit: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology—NTNU, 7491 Trondheim, Norway
Musandji Fuamba: École Polytechnique, Montreal, QC H3T 0A3, Canada

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 7, 1-34

Abstract: This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on hydropower generation, focusing on the Grand Inga hydropower project on the Congo River in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Utilizing a multi-input approach with a conceptual HEC-HMS hydrologic model, this research incorporates a new bias-corrected high-resolution daily downscaled dataset, NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP CMIP6), and its predecessor (CMIP5) under various climate scenarios. The hydropower generation at Inga Falls is simulated using a hydropower model, considering observed and simulated daily flows for different climate models and emission scenarios. The results suggest that the Grand Inga project will be resilient to negative climate impacts during its initial phases (1–5). The system demonstrates security and insensitivity to adverse changes, both for existing (Phase 1–2) and planned (Phase 3–5) hydropower components. This study indicates that climate change effects become apparent only in later phases (6–8), with predominantly positive impacts, potentially increasing the generation potential of the hydropower system. Overall, the Grand Inga hydropower project appears robust against adverse climate influences throughout the majority of its development phases.

Keywords: Grand Inga; multi-input approach; Granger Ramanathan C averaging; NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections Datasets; Congo Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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