Overload Risk Assessment of Transmission Lines Considering Dynamic Line Rating

Jieling Li, Jinming Lin, Yu Han, Lingzi Zhu, Dongxu Chang and Changzheng Shao ()
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Jieling Li: State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment Technology, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China
Jinming Lin: State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment Technology, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China
Yu Han: State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment Technology, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China
Lingzi Zhu: Power Dispatching Control Center, Guizhou Power Grid Company Ltd., Guiyang 550000, China
Dongxu Chang: CSG Electric Power Research Institute, Guangzhou 510663, China
Changzheng Shao: State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment Technology, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 7, 1-17

Abstract: Dynamic line rating (DLR) technology dynamically adjusts the current-carrying capacity of transmission lines based on real-time environmental parameters and plays a critical role in maximizing line utilization, alleviating power flow congestion, and enhancing the security and economic efficiency of power systems. However, the strong coupling between the dynamic capacity and environmental conditions increases the system’s sensitivity to multiple uncertainties and causes complications in the overload risk assessment. Furthermore, conventional evaluation methods struggle to meet the minute-level risk refresh requirements in ultrashort-term forecasting scenarios. To address these challenges, in this study, an analytical overload risk assessment framework is proposed based on the second-order reliability method (SORM). By transforming multidimensional probabilistic integrals into analytical computations and establishing a multiscenario stochastic analysis model, the framework comprehensively accounts for uncertainties such as component random failures, wind power fluctuations, and load variations and enables the accurate evaluation of the overload probabilities under complex environmental conditions with DLR implementation. The results from this study provide a robust theoretical foundation for secure power system dispatch and optimization using multiscenario coupled modeling. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is validated using case studies on a constructed test system.

Keywords: dynamic line rating (DLR); second-order reliability method (SORM); multiple uncertainties; analytical overload risk; overload risk assessment; power system security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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