Impact of Climate Change on Wind Power Generation Studied Using Multivariate Copula Downscaling: A Case Study in Northwestern China

Shen Wang, Jing Wu and Lianhong Lv ()
Additional contact information
Shen Wang: Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
Jing Wu: Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
Lianhong Lv: Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 8, 1-21

Abstract: Climate change can modify regional wind power generation ability, as it may affect wind speed. Here, we developed a multivariate copula downscaling (MvCD) approach to statistically downscale the near-surface wind speed of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) to the scale of wind farms in Urumqi, China. The low computational cost and high random analysis capability of this approach allowed the rapid assessment of projected changes and randomness from nine GCMs, spanning a range of potential futures under four scenarios. Simulation data from multiple GCMs and historical data of the study area were incorporated into the MvCD to generate a high dimensional multivariate copula. Thereafter, the high dimensional multivariate copula was further used to identify future wind speed patterns based on multiple GCMs under different CO 2 emission scenarios. The estimated amount of wind power generation was obtained using future wind speed data. Results revealed the regional characteristics and periodicity of wind speed for Urumqi in the future. Wind power generation results revealed the impacts of climate changes on regional wind power generation and indicated that high wind speeds would occur from June to September and low wind speeds would occur from December to March in future scenarios. Wind speed would be more extreme under each scenario in the future than before. The highest and lowest wind speeds will increase and decrease, respectively. Sustained high winds would increase the potential of wind power generation in the future. Wind instability based on CO 2 emission increases will lead to wind power being curtailed and low wind-power generation.

Keywords: downscaling; future climate scenarios; copula method; wind speed; wind power; Urumqi (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/8/1963/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/8/1963/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:8:p:1963-:d:1632945

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().