Investigation of Residential Value of Lost Load and the Importance of Electric Loads During Outages in Japan

Masashi Matsubara (), Masahiro Mae and Ryuji Matsuhashi
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Masashi Matsubara: Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Systems, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan
Masahiro Mae: Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Systems, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan
Ryuji Matsuhashi: Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Systems, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 8, 1-18

Abstract: Reducing damage caused by power outages is important against the background of severe natural disasters. Estimating the value of lost load (VoLL) is key to making an optimal investment plan for power systems. This paper aims to estimate the recent residential VoLL in Japan by using a survey. The contingent valuation method quantifies the residential willingness to pay (WTP) and its distribution in a 2 h outage during summer. When combining actual demand data, the VoLL is estimated at 501.1 JPY/kWh for a predictable outage and 559.9 JPY/kWh for a sudden one. In addition, the random utility model reveals the effect of people’s attributes on WTP. Larger annual incomes and electricity bills significantly increase WTP. Evacuation experiences and stockpiles also affect WTP in a sudden outage. Finally, 80% of respondents answered that refrigerators, air conditioners, and water supplies are important during outages.

Keywords: attribute significance; contingent valuation method; load importance; random utility model; willingness to pay (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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