Assessment of the Development Potential of Shallow Geothermal Energy Heating and Cooling Projects in Southern China Based on Whole-Lifecycle Methodology

Yiqirui Deng, Zhi Yao (), Mengyu Chen and Yu-Jie Hu ()
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Yiqirui Deng: 114 Branch, Bureau of Geology and Mineral Exploration and Development of Guizhou Province, Zunyi 563006, China
Zhi Yao: State Key Laboratory of Public Big Data, Guizhou University and Ministry of Science and Technology, Guiyang 550025, China
Mengyu Chen: School of Management, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China
Yu-Jie Hu: State Key Laboratory of Public Big Data, Guizhou University and Ministry of Science and Technology, Guiyang 550025, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 9, 1-20

Abstract: The development of shallow geothermal energy projects in southern China can meet the demand for regional heating and cooling energy and carbon emission reduction. However, research on constructing evaluation models for the development potential of shallow geothermal energy projects needs to be expanded. Therefore, this study adopted a hierarchical analysis method to construct a project development potential evaluation model based on the four aspects of resource endowment, economic evaluation, environmental impact, and social support for the shallow geothermal energy heating and cooling project (vertical buried pipe heat exchange system) in southern China and carried out case application and evaluation verification. The results of the study show that: (a) the weights of the four primary indicators for evaluating the development potential of shallow geothermal energy projects in southern China were resource endowment (0.3960) > economic evaluation (0.2847) > social support (0.1725) > environmental impact (0.1468); (b) four secondary indicators, namely heat exchange performance, incentive and supportive policies, geotechnical and thermal-physical parameters, and groundwater conditions, were more important; (c) the case evaluation score was 6.2911, and case application and evaluation verification were carried out. For projects with good potential for investment, contrary to the single financial NPV index evaluation results, our results are more in line with the actual operation results of the project. Thus, this evaluation system can provide a more comprehensive reference for shallow geothermal energy development and investment decision-making.

Keywords: clean energy; shallow geothermal; southern China; evaluation model; hierarchical analysis (AHP); investment decision-making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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