Residential Buildings at Climate Crossroads: Insights from Portugal for South European Energy Performance

Alexandre Castro, Sandra Sorte (), Vera Rodrigues and Nelson Martins ()
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Alexandre Castro: TEMA, Centre for Mechanical Technology and Automation, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Aveiro (UA), 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Sandra Sorte: TEMA, Centre for Mechanical Technology and Automation, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Aveiro (UA), 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Vera Rodrigues: Department of Environment and Planning, Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM), University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Nelson Martins: TEMA, Centre for Mechanical Technology and Automation, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Aveiro (UA), 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 9, 1-18

Abstract: This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the energy performance of residential buildings across Portugal’s diverse climatic regions, providing a representative reference for Southern European contexts. Dynamic energy simulations using EnergyPlus were conducted for standardised residential building models in five cities: Bragança, Porto, Lisbon, Évora, and Faro. Three climate scenarios were analysed: present-day conditions (TMY2021), the current regulatory scenario (LNEG-EPW), and a projected mid-century scenario (CCW-EPW). Results indicate substantial regional variations, with significant increases in cooling demands and corresponding reductions in heating needs, exposing limitations in the regulatory climate files currently used in energy certification processes. These findings emphasise the critical need to incorporate predictive climatic scenarios into building design standards and energy policies. Adopting such an approach will enhance residential building resilience, ensure thermal comfort, reduce energy consumption, and contribute to sustainable development goals. These insights offer practical guidance for policymakers, urban planners, architects, and engineers aiming to effectively adapt residential buildings to anticipated climatic shifts, facilitating proactive and informed decision-making to address future energy challenges.

Keywords: climate change; building energy efficiency; residential buildings; dynamic energy simulations; energy performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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