Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Sustainability Index in Waste-to-Energy Conversion Scenarios Using System Dynamics Modeling

Ali Shahbazi, Mazaher Moeinaddini, Rajib Sinha (), Mohammad Ali Abdoli, Mahnaz Hosseinzadeh, Neamatollah Jaafarzadeh Haghighi Fard and Shoaib Azizi
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Ali Shahbazi: Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
Mazaher Moeinaddini: Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
Rajib Sinha: Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering (SEED), KTH Royal Institute of Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Mohammad Ali Abdoli: Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Mahnaz Hosseinzadeh: Sheffield University Management School, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
Neamatollah Jaafarzadeh Haghighi Fard: Environmental Technologies Research Center, Medical Basic Sciences Research Institute, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
Shoaib Azizi: Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering (SEED), KTH Royal Institute of Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 9, 1-22

Abstract: This study aims to evaluate various waste-to-energy conversion scenarios in terms of their potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improve sustainability based on economic and environmental outcomes. To achieve this, a comprehensive waste management model was developed using the system dynamics approach in the Vensim software to predict waste generation and composition and compare pyrolysis, incineration, gasification, and sanitary landfill scenarios with the baseline scenario over 25 years (2025–2050). The analysis of different waste management scenarios highlights the superior performance of pyrolysis in terms of energy recovery, economic profit, GHG emissions reduction, environmental outcomes, and long-term sustainability. Results show that the pyrolysis scenario generates the highest electricity, with a cumulative net electricity output of 10,469 GWh. Although pyrolysis has GHG emissions due to energy consumption and direct process emissions, it results in the largest net reduction in GHG emissions, primarily due to avoided emissions from increased electricity generation, leading to a 346% reduction compared to the baseline scenario. Furthermore, the pyrolysis scenario demonstrates the highest economic profit at 354 million USD and the highest sustainability index (SI) at 499 million USD. The cumulative SI from 2025 to 2050 shows a 503% increase compared to the business-as-usual scenario, highlighting its superior sustainability performance. This study highlights the importance of strategic waste-to-energy planning in reducing GHG emissions and promoting sustainability. It also offers valuable insights for policymakers and researchers, supporting the development of sustainable waste management strategies and effective efforts for climate change mitigation.

Keywords: waste-to-energy (WtE); greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; sustainability index (SI); system dynamics modeling; climate change mitigation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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