North American Natural Gas Supply Forecast: The Hubbert Method Including the Effects of Institutions

Douglas B. Reynolds and Marek Kolodziej
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Douglas B. Reynolds: Department of Economics, School of Management, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 756080, Fairbanks, AK 99775-6080; USA
Marek Kolodziej: Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA

Energies, 2009, vol. 2, issue 2, 1-38

Abstract: In this article, the U.S. and southern Canadian natural gas supply market is considered. An important model for oil and natural gas supply is the Hubbert curve. Not all regions of the world are producing oil or natural gas following a Hubbert curve, even when price and market conditions are accounted for. One reason is that institutions are affecting supply. We investigate the possible effects of oil and gas market institutions in North America on natural gas supply. A multi-cycle Hubbert curve with inflection points similar to the Soviet Union’s oil production multi-cycle Hubbert curve is used to determine North American natural gas discovery rates and to analyze how market specific institutions caused the inflection points. In addition, we analyze the latest shale natural gas projections critically. While currently, unconventional resources of natural gas suggest that North American natural gas production will increase without bound, the model here suggests a peak in North American natural gas supplies could happen in 2013.

Keywords: energy supply; Hubbert curve; institutional economics; regulated industries; natural gas (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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